Novel Corona Virus (nCoV) : Epidemics in a Connected World.

Novel Corona Virus (nCoV) : Epidemics in a Connected World.

This day - 25th January - is special for the Chinese, for it happens to be their Lunar New Year and is also known as Spring Festival, a grandest festival in China, with a 7-day long holiday. The Chinese Spring Festival or the Lunar New Year is the most colorful annual event, celebrated across the country with traditional new year celebrations, which lasts up to two weeks and this year it is scheduled to last until 8th February. The Chinese New Year is internationally known for its iconic red lanterns, loud fireworks, massive banquets and parades, and the festival even triggers exuberant celebrations across the globe and therefore it is no wonder that many international tourists visit China during this celebratory period. 

Most unfortunately, this years Chinese New Year celebration has been muted by the novel Corona Virus, which has struck the city of Wuhan in central China, the spread of this virus has been declared as a health emergency in China by the World Health Organisation (WHO). The past few days, most news headlines across the world, including India, have front paged the news of the novel Corona Virus (nCoV), which has wreaked havoc in the city of Wuhan, China, bringing it to a eerie silence. The fear of the virus and its spread is so severe that the Chinese Government has restricted the movement of nearly 40 million people and an unprecedented and indefinite lockdown has been imposed in 13 cities in central China, aimed at arresting the spread of this virus. The resultant travel lockdown, just ahead China’s Lunar New Year holiday, the busiest travel season, has effected not just China but the whole of the global community, including India. The severity of the fear of the spread of the nCoV has drawn the attention of the World Health Organisation, who has declared it a health emergency in China and just stopping from calling it a global epidemic. Although there was no unanimity among the WHO, while debating on the issue for declaring it as a global outbreak, yet there was one certainty, the seriousness of the issue. The total deaths reported by the Chinese health authorities has already touched 41 with at least 15 new deaths reported in Wuhan, the epicentre of this deadly virus, just yesterday. The virus is now no longer confined just to China. It has spread to other countries as well with a second case confirmed in the United States and three cases confirmed in France. Health officials across the globe are preparing for an outbreak that could last months.

The novel Corona Virus was first identified in Wuhan, China in a market selling live poultry, seafood and wild animals. Now the virus has spread to South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and the United States. Investigators in other countries, including Mexico and Saudi Arabia, are evaluating possible cases. As soon as the news of nCoV spread broke out, the Indian Government too has initiated measures to contain its spread in our country. Passengers flying into India from affected areas in China and other countries are being examined and as many as 20,844 passengers, from 96 flights, have been screened for nCoV symptoms in India,  as of January 24, as per the statement issued from the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Just yesterday, the health ministry said , 4,082 passengers were screened in 19 flights  and a travel advisory has been extended to 12 more airports in addition to the current seven. Fortunately for us, the Health Ministry statement said that no case of novel coronavirus (nCoV) has been detected in the country so far. The health Ministry has also identified different labs across India which can screen for the nCoV and the National Institute of Virology, an ICMR lab, has confirmed that none of the samples screened so far from passengers who have flown into India from affected areas have shown positive and therefore it is sign for some relief as of now. However a news has now confirmed that the first known Indian national, Preeti Maheshwari, who is afflicted with the Corona virus is battling for life in a hospital in China. Maheshwari, a primary art school teacher at the International School of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, who suffered a coronavirus pneumonia attack leading to respiratory failure is now suspected of multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) and has gone into a septic shock and is undergoing treatment in the intensive care unit at Shekou Hospital in Shenzhen, China. Therefore, in the connected world we now live in, it is absolutely essential that the government and all health workers must remain on high alert to combat the spread of this menace.

Virus, such as the Corona viruses, are highly contagious and spread rapidly. The Corona virus is named so due to the spikes that protrude from their membranes, which resemble the sun’s corona. The current virus China dubbed the novel Corona virus nCoV, can infect both animals and people, and can cause illnesses of the respiratory tract, ranging from the common cold to severe conditions like the SARS - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - which had earlier affected thousands of people around the world and killed nearly a thousand people during its 2003 outbreak. The Chinese researchers earlier had announced that the mysterious illness that had sickened 59 people in the city of Wuhan, with 11 million population, in central China was because of the novel Corona Virus nCoV. These cases were linked to workers at a market that sold live fish, animals and birds. This market was later shut down and disinfected by the Chinese authorities. It is therefore certain that animals are the most likely primary source of the outbreak of nCoV, but unfortunately which animals are responsible for this virus is not certain. Our experience has shown that the past virus outbreaks of similar illnesses, including SARS, also are believed to have emerged from live animal markets. It is also now fairly well known that one form of coronavirus causes Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, which is transmitted to humans by camels. The current nCoV, the Chinese health officials believe, can also be transmitted from person to person and a growing number of people, including medical staff caring for patients, have become infected in Wuhan, and it has therefore made containment of the spread of this virus more difficult. Scientists researching on the nCoV are still not sure how exactly the virus spreads. However it is certain that the nCoV it can be transmitted from one person to another, which makes it a bigger risk than if it were carried only from animals to humans. The virus most likely gets transmitted through coughing and sneezing, as is the case with influenza and other respiratory viruses, which are highly infectious.

The best selling book “The World is Flat : A Brief History of the Twenty-First Century." by Thomas Friedman, New York Times, columnist, uses a metaphor -World is Flat- to describe the 21st century’s connected world (inspired by Nandan Nilekani), which offers a level playing field for commerce to the global community, destined to economically benefit countries like India. But then this very advantageous level playing field -of a connected world- comes with spread of viruses such as the current nCoV, and its consequences. We must therefore be prepared to face such consequences by reminding ourselves of the 1918 pandemic Spanish Flu, which had killed more than 75 million people across the globe including in India. 

The year 2018, marked the centenary of the 1918 pandemic -the Spanish Flu Outbreak-which rampaged the world and killed 75/to 100 million people an estimated 5 percent of the world’s population. India too has paid a heavy price during this outbreak, resulting in an estimated 17 million deaths, in two waves of this deadly flu that swept India in May and October of that year (1918). A hundred years later, scientists know much more about how to prevent and treat such diseases. But the threat of a global outbreak, like the current nCoV is now far greater than ever. Understanding what happened during this major health crisis is therefore important, particularly in the current connected world and an era of humanity’s growing population and its ever continuing drift to crowded cities across the globe and the resulting cohabitation of limited space with animal kingdom, which aid in spreading of diseases. All it takes now is one plane ride for a few localized cases of a disease to become an epidemic.

In order to create an understanding of the importance of such epidemics and their impact among the public, in the year 2018, the Nehru Science Centre, (NCSM), Ministry of Culture, Government of India, had organised an exhibition “Outbreak  : An Epidemic in a Connected World”, which was developed by the National Museum of Natural History, a Smithsonian Institution, to commemorate the centenary of the Spanish Flu. This exhibition was brought to our centre with support from the Harvard Global Health Institute. 

TB, Malaria, Dengue, Influenza, and such other diseases like AIDS, Ebola, Cholera, Plague, Nipah, Zika etc. terrorise our country and kill thousands every year. If this is not scary the modern lifestyles in a connected world and ever increasing migration from villages and smaller towns to larger metropolitans and to global cities, with ever shrinking space, and inadequate hygiene is sure shot recipe for disaster and the best way to arrest this is creating awareness on infectious diseases and outbreaks. Therefore the Nehru Science Centres in its continuing efforts to create public awareness on these issues organises exhibitions on such topics from time to time and even the current on going exhibition ‘Superbugs : Is it the end of Antibiotics?, about which I have already posted earlier is also aimed at creating public awareness on health issues. 

I do hope that the earlier exhibition’Outbreak, and the current exhibition Superbugs, help in sowing a seed of public awareness with a hope that it will result in changing behaviour on an individual and community level to bring about the much needed difference. This awareness, we hope, will go a long way in lowering the pandemic risk of spread of infectious diseases like the nCoV which the world is now facing.