One Year of Covid 19 in India – A Thumbs Down to all those Dooms Day Forecasters for India.

 It was on this day last year -  30th January, 2020, that India’s destiny began with COVID 19 pandemic when it first came in contact with a lady patient, who had returned from Wuhan, China and was confirmed to be infected with Covid 19 by National Institute of Virology, Pune  on this day last year. 

Images : courtesy - Wikipedia.

This year as I unfurled the National flag, at the Nehru Science Centre, during the auspicious occasion of the 72nd Republic day – 26th Jan,  2021, I briefly addressed my colleagues and dealt into the bye gone tumultuous Covid pandemic year, which has adversely effected the globe including India and our centre. Incidentally it was on the 25th January, 2020, five days before India came in contact with Covid 19, that I had written a blog on the Novel Corona Virus (nCOV2) and this was the beginning of at least another four blogs on this subject. Most news headlines across the world, including India, had front paged the news of the novel Corona Virus (nCoV), in January 2020 and had forecasted that this would rampage the world, which it did most unfortunately and continues to do so even today. The fear of the virus and its spread was heralded to be so severe that the Chinese Government had restricted the movement of nearly 40 million people and an unprecedented and indefinite lockdown had been imposed in 13 cities in central China, aimed at arresting the spread of this virus. But then there is also credible evidence to suggest that the Chinese were late to pass on this information to the world community, particularly the World Health Organisation (WHO), which was informed only on 31st December. Had the Chinese been more honest and transparent, perhaps the world would have been a far better place with far fewer deaths. But then expecting transparency and fair play from the Chinese is almost an impossibility, which India has been witness to since early days, the example of which was seen during the 1962 China war and even recently during the Galway Valley treacherous encounter, the outcome of which has its adverse effect even today.

Immediately after being alerted of the Covid pandemic, the WHO realizing the severity of the spread of this epidemic declared it to be a health emergency in China and just stopped from calling it a global epidemic. Had the Chinese been more forthcoming, perhaps the WHO could have declared it a global epidemic much earlier, which would have given more time for the world to be prepared to face this Pandemic. However that was not to be. The virus, which originated in the city of Wuhan in China was no longer confined to China and it started spreading quite rapidly to other countries, since millions had travelled to and out of China by the time the Chinese had sounded the WHO. In this process the Covid also travelled to India and touched Kerala through one of the lady medical student who returned back to India from Wuhan China. As stated earlier she was confirmed Covid positive on 30th January 2020.

This 20 year-old lady who returned to India from China reported at the Emergency Department of the General Hospital, Thrissur, Kerala, with a history of dry cough and sore throat, on 27th January 2020. She did not have any history of fever, rhinitis or shortness of breath, telltale symptoms of Covid 19. However, the authorities had learnt that she had returned to Kerala from Wuhan city, China, on January 23, 2020 and therefore the health authorities were concerned that she may have been  asymptomatic between January 23 and 26. On the morning of 27th January 2020, she felt a mild sore throat and dry cough and therefore reported to the hospital for checkup. She did not give a history of contact with a person suspected or confirmed with COVID-19 infection. She also stated that  she had not visited the Wuhan Seafood Wholesale Market – the epicenter from where the Covid spread. However, she gave a history of travel from Wuhan to Kunming by train where she had noticed people with respiratory symptoms in railway station and train. The Thrissur General Hospital, recorded that she was afebrile with a pulse rate of 82/min, blood pressure 130/80 mmHg, temperature 98.5°F and oxygen saturation at 96 per cent and that the patient was breathing ambient air. The doctors also noted that the lung auscultation revealed normal breath sounds with no adventitious sounds. Notwithstanding all these normal health conditions, in view of her travel history from Wuhan, the district rapid response team decided to admit her in an isolation room, which was designated for the corona patients. An oropharyngeal swab was obtained from her and this sample was sent to the National Institute of Virology (NIV), a well established CSIR laboratory in Pune, along with her blood samples, for the detection of viral respiratory pathogens, on January 27, 2020. The NIV, Pune, used real time reverse transcription PCR method of testing and confirmed on the 30th January last year -2020, that the patient suffered from Covid 19. Thus on this day -30th Jan 2020, that she was tested positive for Covid. This India officially came in contact with Covid 19, through this lady patient who had returned to Kerala - India from the Wuhan province in China. Her oropharyngeal swab result was officially reported by the NIV, Pune, to the District Control Cell, Kerala on January 30, 2020 as positive for COVID-19 infection.

Therefore today is the first anniversary of Covid 19 case in India and in this tumultuous year which has passed by, it is time to look back at the bygone year. We can notice that amidst the huge tribulations that we had to endeavor during this tumultuous year, we can also feel a sense of triumph as well, particularly when we notice that the situation seems to be improving and the doubling rate in Mumbai as reflected in the news headline today is now 557 days as against a week earlier. Moreover we have now dropped down to the fourth position in terms of number of deaths from the second position, which we had climbed to. Considering our extremely high population density, particularly in the metropolitan cities, and so also our relatively poor health infrastructure and sanitation we must realise that we have definitely fared better than even the developed nations. We must also not forget that there were several so called experts who had forecasted a definite doomsday predictions for India and predicted that hundreds of millions of people will be contracted with Covid 19 and millions will die from Covid in India. Fortunately that dooms day predictions have not happened in India and for that we must stand in reverence and salute our front line health workers, our scientists, police and other civic agencies, and so also our political leadership - cutting across states and political parties, who, notwithstanding their utterly divided polity and ideologies, have worked together to take control of the situation. Hopefully the current situation will help us in the coming year to turn around our economy, which has adversely impacted most lives in India, particularly those in the bottom of the ladder - the labour force who bore the brunt of the Covid 19 pandemic with millions loosing jobs and livelihood. The government, all states and the central government, must be credited for handling the Covid pandemic situation fairly well.

 

Today - on the occasion of the first anniversary of Covid 19 pandemic in India, when we look back and see what its adverse impact has been we notice that Covid has literally rampaged most parts of the world with the number of Corona confirmed cases crossing 100 million and deaths hovering at 2.2 millions. When we analyse the world data and compare how India stands against the world average, we will notice that we have fared better and for that we must complement all those Covid warriors, health workers and others who have strived hard for achieving. Credit must also go to all of us - the citizens of India who have endeared all the pains and tribulations of lockdowns and such other difficulties, while combating the pandemic. A look at the worldometers.info, reveals that the total number of Covid cases in the world today stand at 102,628,625 cases and the number of deaths are 2216285 and the total cases per million population is 13,166 and deaths per million population is 284.3. When we compare these world numbers with that of India and other countries, which have faced deaths in excess of 50000, the data reveals that India has fared better than other countries and this must give a big thumbs down to all those dooms day predictors and naysayers for India, who had predicted dooms days forecast for India. Here are the numbers for comparison.

India now stands fourth,  in terms of number of deaths from Covid, behind US, Brazil and Mexico, a climb down from the second position, which it was hogging for a long time. From those early days when India was severely criticised for poor testing we have managed to overcome all those odds and our Covid tests now stand at a respectable 1,40,562 per million and this number is higher than most countries and fares better than Brazil, Iran and South Africa. These numbers must also be seen in the context of huge population - 130+ crore population of our country. A look at confirmed Covid cases per million shows that India has around 7734/ million population confirmed Covid cases as against US -79825, Brazil -43727, UK -55407, Spain - 60525, France - 48250 and Italy -41865. Comparison of data of deaths per million population also show that we have fared relatively better in comparison with even the well developed and better equipped health infrastructure countries. Indian deaths per million population is around 111 / million as against US -1347, UK-1533, Brazil -1044, France -1157, Spain -1247, Italy -1454, Germany -680 and South Africa -730. 

Mumbai, which faced a huge challenge in the initial stages, and even today the state of Maharashtra stands second only to Kerala in the new numbers, is now inching back to normalcy with the doubling data reaching 557 days as against a week earlier. The city of Mumbai has managed to control the pandemic against all the odds and for that we at the Nehru Science Centre also have played a small contributory role. When the pandemic started raising its fangs by spreading rapidly and was in the process of overrunning the health infrastructure preparedness of the city, Dr Lakdawalla thought of an innovative way of creating a jumbo Covid facilities in some of the public places and one such place used for creating the Jumbo Covid centre, very early on into the pandemic times, was our centre. There was a 200 plus Covid bed facilities created in our campus in our temporary exhibition space for emergency preparedness for handling Covid pandemic. Similarly any more such innovative methods were used across the country to combat Covid 19. With all such great innovations and outstandingly well coordinated measures between the health workers and administration the city has managed to over come the major health crisis, which was predicted for Mumbai. There was even a dooms days prediction which many naysayers envisaged for Mumbai, which fortunately and with the untiring efforts of health workers, has been avoided. 

Today when two of the vaccines, which are made in India, have rolled out and India has started the vaccination drive across the country beginning with the health workers, we can feel a sense of relaxation. But then we must not forget those deadly haunting thoughts which were forewarned and dooms days predicted for the city by many people. Although we have managed to prove those naysayers wrong, we must continue to abide by the Covid protocols and not let our guard down. We must continue to maintain that physical distancing and wear our masks and maintain health hygiene and use those sanitisers to keep us safe from the Covid pandemic and also enrol ourselves in the vaccination program as and when it becomes available for us. We must also abide by all the other procedures and protocols prescribed by the government. It is only then that we can pat our backs and join hands with our health workers and the government to completely eliminate the Covid pandemic from India. Let us all look back and see what those early dooms day predictions were for India and how we have all collectively proved those naysayers wrong and have made them bite  the dust and given them a big thumbs down.

Some where around end of March 2020 just when we went into the first stringent lockdown, I vividly remember that several international media and some of the so called health experts and commentators had predicted one of the worst dooms day for India. One of the headlines in The Wire dated 19th March, 2020, read ‘Watch: 'India Could Be Next Coronavirus Hotspot, in Worst Case up to 60% Indians Could Be Infected',  They quoted Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan, Director of the Washington-based Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy. Incidentally Dr Ramanan was all over the news in India and was interviewed by many leading journalists in India which included Dr Karan Thapar, Rajdeep Sardesai, Barkha Dutt, NDTV and others. These media quoted Dr Ramanan and some other self-proclaimed epidemiologists and their so called statistical models to forecast that tens of millions of people in India will die and many more will be affected by the Covid pandemic in less than a year. This dooms day scare was unfortunately given traction by some of the media who kept playing these interviews and wrote about them. This news further accentuated the already existing fear among the people and made it that much more difficult for health workers and other Covid warriors to tackle the situation. Fortunately India managed the situation very well. From preparing for the huge quantity of required face masks to PPE kits, to sanitisers, to preparing adequate health infrastructure, Covid testing kits, medicines and such other medical aids, India rose up to the situation. Amidst the difficulties of lockdown and non availability of public  transport, the Internet infrastructure and our online preparedness came in very handy. Work from home was very effectively implemented and most emergency workers who were to ensure that these facilities worked efficiently did not fail us. Scientists, technologists,  industry and all others extended their support so as to collectively overcome our hardship. 

We not only helped ourselves but also helped other countries too. During Covid pandemic one could see that India was a nation which supplied maximum amount of pharmaceutical drugs like the paracetamol chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine (HCQL drugs to the world. The supply of Malarial drugs from India were questioned since among others who asked for these drugs was Trump. The Lancet too fell prey to this and published a paper against the chloroquine and hcql based on suspect data which they had to retract publicly. In a way the Covid handling in India and its success became political, which I feel is unwarranted. India has also pledged free vaccines and is transporting vaccines in large quantity to most of our neighbouring countries and including Brazil who has welcomed this gesture by comparing it to the mythical Sanjeevini which was carried by Lord Hanuman.  In that sense we have not only managed to pass through this tumultuous times but have also helped the world community in this testing times. 

On the occasion of the first anniversary of the Covid in India let us earnestly hope that it dies down much before it reaches its second anniversary, not just in India but globally as well.

Jai Hind