Sensational Findings of 5 Million Covid Deaths in India by a US Report : Reality or a Myth.

Most news papers in India front paged the news of an US study that claimed  5 million Covid deaths have occurred in India during the Covid pandemic (as on end of June 2021), as against the Indian official data of 4,18,987 deaths, as on 22nd July. The US study, published by the US-based think tank - Center for Global Development, whose authors include among others former chief economic adviser, Arvind Subramanian, made this sensational claim which made front page headline and prime time news in India. As expected politics took over and depending on which side of the political divide one is, either endorsed emphatically the US finding or ridiculed it completely. But then what could be the real data and does the US study has any credible evidence? You may put forth your arguments.

With my limited knowledge on this subject, I tried crunching published data from different sources to try and see whether the US findings is accurate. I feel it may not measure up to the exacting standards of scientific rigour that such a sensational claim warrants. This claim of a staggering 5 million deaths ensured that the news trended in all channels and news papers. Scientific study and findings should be based on exacting standards that are warranted in science, which are mandated to be based on anecdotal data and peer reviewed findings and never on apocryphal considerations. It is common parlance that most countries measure deaths by a number called Crude deaths per thousand population. If one studies these numbers over the years and compare it to the numbers in 2020, one can arrive at an intellectual inference on whether the claim of 5 millions Covid deaths merits any consideration. Considering the seriousness of the case it is better to rely on the data published by some international agencies and not on Government of India data, which the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare publishes. 

For that I looked up the data published by the United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2019 and the data of crude deaths per thousand population in India over the years is as follows.

1960- 22.184

1970 -17.187

1980 - 13.29

1990-10.864

2000-8.692

2010 - 7.492

2015- 7.194

2016- 7.195

2017-7.21

2018- 7.234

2019- 7.265.

But then we will also need the data for the year 2020 as well and for that I relied on the Data from the world data Atlas, India - knoema.com. It says that in 2020, crude death rate for India was 7.30 deaths per thousand population. The site further shows that the data for the year 2019 is 7.273 and for 2018 it is 7.237. This data more or less matches with the UN world population data. The data of 7.30 deaths per thousand population for the year 2020, appears to be scientifically validated. This shows that there has been an increase of 0.035 deaths per thousand in 2020 in comparison with 2019. One can also notice that between the years 2018 and 2019 -the pre Covid 19 pandemic period - there has been an increase of 0.031 deaths per thousand, which is more or less consistent during Covid and non Covid times with a minor increase of .004 per thousand in 2020, which may be due to Covid or otherwise.

The above data clearly reveals a fact that the total number of deaths in India have more or less been consistent with some small increase due to Covid and this shows that the Government of India data of total Covid deaths to be around 4.2 lakhs (till 22nd July) appears to be more credible than the 5 million deaths data put out by the US findings. If the US report was to be right, the data of Covid deaths for 2020 that they have estimated should have been reflected in the deaths per thousand for the year 2020 and that should have increased to around 10 or higher, per thousand population, which is not the case as per the data revealed by Knoema.com.

According to the data by Knoema.com following is the approximate number of total deaths of people in India for the following years 

2020 - 10,07,3480.

2019 - 9925990

2018 - 9785020 

2017- 9652530

2016 - 9531110

2015-  9425870

The above data shows that in the year 2020 an additional 1,47,490 people died over and above the people who died in 2019. Similarly in the year 2019 an additional 1,40,970 people died over and above 2018. This increase in death appears to be some what similar and there is no sudden raise in the number of deaths in 2020, which the US finding shows.

This means that the trending news of 50 Lakh deaths due to Covid, published by US-based think tank Center for Global Development appears to be incorrect and perhaps this study may be based on apocryphal data and information. Does such sensational claims augur well for the the US think tank and it’s publishers is something which time will reveal. When one makes such overarching claims that gets front paged, it is expected that such studies and findings are based on exacting standards of published data that are warranted in science that are mandated to be based on anecdotal data and peer reviewed findings and never on apocryphal considerations.

With this argument one can say that the US study by the authors may not be based on the exacting standards of science at best or at worst some may call the report is based on voodoo science findings that may have had political bias and colour.